Now that everyone is comfortable with May being a breeze, let’s take a look back at how May 2012 unfolded…..
The market came back from a mid-month April dip to hit highs for the year on May 1st. On May 2nd, it tried to sell-off, but the buy-the-dippers were quite ready for action, and closed it higher than the open. It rose 50 or so S&P points in the last week of April into the first week of May. Look familiar?
Notice how the wicks got long in mid-May as the market battles induced wild swings.
The first two days of May are historically bullish for the market, coming in positive over 70% of the time. The same can not be said for next week. Earnings are over after next week, so the market is going to be left with the loneliness of the sour economy, and “the Bernanke’s” (still entertaining:Â http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k) Â ability to prop it up. (More succinctly, give traders and investors the confidence that his actions enable them to feel safe buying stocks.)
Complacency is here in the VIX option market:
And the VIX its itself just occasionally rolls over to murmur, then falls back asleep:
VIX Volatility Index values generated at:Â Â 05/02/2013 15:14:59
|Trade Date||Expiration Date||VIX||Contract Month|
|5/2/2013 3:14:59 PM||12.97||1|
|5/2/2013 3:14:59 PM||13.81||2|
|5/2/2013 3:14:59 PM||14.47||3|